Defining 

Quantitative Macro

Our Philosophy
At Numera Macro, uncertainty is not a limitation.
It is the starting point.

Rather than focusing on a single expected outcome, we evaluate the full distribution of possible macro and market scenarios. This allows us to highlight favourable odds for our clients through the power of probability analysis.

Our History

Numera Macro is the investment strategy division of Numera Analytics, a firm built on deep expertise in commodities and materials markets. Operating in sectors defined by volatility, Numera has long emphasized risk monitoring rather than relying solely on central forecasts.

In 2018, we extended this discipline to global financial markets, applying our modelling framework to cover a broader range asset classes. Our objective was clear: to address a gap in macro investing by introducing a more systematic, probability-based approach that rigorously tests the relationship between the economy and financial markets.


Since then, we have evolved into a dedicated provider of top-down investment research, delivering evidence-based, probability-driven insights to a broad range of asset managers. What began with our flagship Macro Strategist report has progressively expanded into a broader suite of tools designed to support timely, actionable investment decisions.

Beyond Opinion:
A Probability-Weighted
Approach

Unlike traditional research firms that rely on point forecasts, Numera Macro uses a rigorous quantitative framework to assign probabilities to a range of economic outcomes. By integrating hundreds of macroeconomic variables, we transform complex global developments into actionable investment insights.

Systematic Reliability

Our systematic approach provides a consistent framework for assessing uncertainty and evaluating markets as conditions change. The same disciplined process is applied across asset classes, regions and economic environments, maintaining consistency over time and providing a dependable foundation for investment decisions. The result is a suite of research services that are transparent, repeatable and grounded in evidence.

Testable
Our views are grounded in measurable probabilities rather than intuition alone. Every forecast is continually tested against new information, allowing us to refine our models and improve their reliability over time.
Consistent
Every forecast is built on the same macro framework, allowing clients to compare opportunities across asset classes, regions and time horizons using a common methodology.
Comprehensive
Our research spans most major economies, asset classes, and investment horizons, giving clients a consistent framework for evaluating opportunities and risks across markets.
Transparent
We believe clients should understand not only our conclusions but also the assumptions behind them. Our models and indicators are designed to be transparent, providing confidence in how investment views are developed.
Relevant
We identify the macro themes most likely to influence market outcomes and assess them through a probability based framework, helping clients focus on what matters most, strengthen conviction, and improve portfolio positioning.
Actionable
Our research is designed to move beyond analysis into implementation. We translate macro probabilities into investment ideas, portfolio positioning and risk management decisions that clients can put into practice.
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The Quantitative Minds

Mathieu Wener
Senior Economist

Mathieu Wener works as a Senior Economist for Numera’s Macro Research practice. He is responsible for analyzing the latest developments in the world economy and financial markets. Mathieu contributes actively to Numera’s various economics research publications, including monthly forecast reports and thematic research pieces. His primary focus is on business cycle dynamics across developed and emerging markets. In addition, Mathieu conducts extensive analysis on global manufacturing and consumer staples, in support of Numera’s sectoral research coverage. He joined Numera upon completion of a Master’s degree in Economics at the University of Toronto.

Joaquín Kritz Lara
Chief Economist and Strategist

Joaquín is Numera’s Chief Economist and heads the firm’s Macro Research practice. He is responsible for Numera’s macro product offering, including timely research on the world economy and strategy publications on all major asset classes (DM + EM equities and FICC). In addition, he designs and oversees the implementation of Numera’s econometric models for forecasting, portfolio construction and quantitative research. He also presents frequently on the global economy and financial markets. His research primarily focuses on the impact of macro shocks on asset prices, and on the design and evaluation of probability forecast models. Joaquín holds a Master’s degree in Economics from University College London (UCL), and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from McGill University.

Robert Cruvellier
Associate Director, Global Macro Solutions

Robert works in Numera’s macro research division. As Associate Director, he fosters long-term relationships required to be an extension of both the research department and the clients’ investment decision process. Robert graduated from Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business, with a Bachelor’s Degree in Business Administration and a minor in Entrepreneurship.

Nicolás Alexander
Research Associate

Nicolás is a Research Associate for Numera’s Macro Research Practice, where is contributes to the production of Numera’s global, US and LatAm economics publications. He is also heavily involved in the maintenance and development of the firm’s modelling infrastructure, and regular updating of models and forecast files. Nicolás holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics, graduating with honours from the University of the Center for Macroeconomic Studies of Argentina (UCEMA)

Luciano Campos
Senior Economist

Luciano Campos is a Senior Economist for Numera’s Macro Research practice, leading the production of Numera’s Macro Perspectives reports. Beyond his involvement in economic research, he is responsible for constructing Numera’s econometric models for structural analysis and forecasting. Luciano has over 15 years of experience in structural econometrics research. Before joining Numera, he was a Visiting Professor at the University of Alcalá in Spain. He also held visiting positions at the Bank of Spain and the Central Bank of Argentina. He has published research on macro-econometrics in various leading economic journals. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Complutense University of Madrid.

Leandro Vitaver
Research Associate

Leandro is a Research Associate for Numera’s Macro Research practice, where he contributes to our global, US and Latin America economics coverage. In addition, he is actively involved in the update and maintenance of Numera’s macro forecast models and data files. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires, graduating with honors. Prior to joining Numera, he worked as an analyst at a leading local consultancy focused on monetary policy.

Juan Sebastián Serebrisky
Senior Commodities Analyst

Juan Sebastián is a Senior Commodities Analyst for Numera’s Macro and sectoral practices. He actively contributes to Numera’s various commodity publications, and update and maintenance of forecast files, primarily focusing on oil & gas, industrial metals and logistics. Juan holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires, and a special Diploma on Energy Management and Technology from Argentina’s Technical National University. Prior to joining Numera, he worked as an analyst for a leading local economic consultancy and at the National Statistics Institute (INDEC), focusing on energy, mining and industrial activity.

Jackson Cook
Director, Global Macro Solutions

Jackson Cook is a Director at Numera Analytics for our Macro Research practice. He is responsible for developing our macro research offering alongside our team of economists and strategists. Additionally, Jackson supports Numera’s strategists by conducting both bottom-up and industry-level research on major US equity sectors. Jackson is completing a Bachelor’s Degree in Business at the John Molson School of Business from Concordia University.

Christian Haug-Johansen
Director, IT and Software Development

Christian is responsible for the architecture and development of software for data consolidation, analysis and reporting at Numera. He is also in charge of quantitative research as head of the Quant Group. He obtained a B.Sc. in Mathematics from McGill University and an M.Sc. in Financial Engineering from HEC Montreal, where his research focused on stochastic volatility models for option pricing.

Chris Cook
Vice President, Global Macro Solutions

Chris has worked closely with large and small financial institutions providing independent investment research around the world for almost 20 years. As head of sales, he instilled in his team that daily activities went beyond business development and fostering long-term relationships required them to be an extension of both the research department and the clients’ investment decision process. At Numera Analytics, Chris has been instrumental in promoting and expanding our macro research practice. His extensive experience coupled with our modern approach to macro analysis is helping Numera to provide clear competitive advantages to financial institutions and corporations globally.

Bethany Startin
Managing Editor

As Managing Editor at Numera, Bethany Startin is responsible for overseeing the editorial and production processes for Numera’s macro research publications. Prior to joining Numera, Bethany was a senior editor at Morningstar Sustainalytics, where she created and oversaw the company’s editorial style guide. She previously held editorial roles at NN Investment Partners (now part of Goldman Sachs Asset Management) and Morningstar. She holds a Masters of Fine Arts in Creative Writing from the University of Alabama and a BA in English and Creative Writing from the University of Warwick.

Augusto Mamone
Economist

Augusto is an Economist for Numera’s Macro Research practice, where he contributes to the firm’s coverage of global and US equity and fixed income markets. His main focus is on quantitative research for asset allocation, sector rotation and yield curve modeling. In addition, he contributes to the development of data-driven frameworks to aid investment strategy. Augusto holds a degree in Economics and a Master’s degree in Finance from Universidad del CEMA, where he now serves as an Adjunct Professor of International Monetary Economics and Derivatives. He is a CFA Level II candidate and holds the Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management (ARPM) certification. Prior to joining Numera, Augusto built experience in the public and diplomatic sectors, serving as a Project Finance Analyst at Argentina’s Ministry of Economy, and at the British Embassy in Buenos Aires.

Jonathan McElhatton
Director – Business Strategy

Jonathan McElhatton is a senior analyst at Numera Analytics. He mainly covers the consumer packaging sector, analyzing trends affecting global demand for fast-moving consumer goods, in particular food and beverages. Jonathan holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the London School of Economics, as well as a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from McGill University.